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This week in Opportunities:

AAA Projects 3.8% Increase in Year-End Holiday Travel
Global Hotel Transaction Volume Forecast to Increase up to 40%
Survey Reveals Leisure Travelers Intentions for 2010
Executive Movers! See who's going where?
Travel Executive Employment Report

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OPPORTUNITIES NEWS & TRENDS

AAA Projects 3.8% Increase in Year-End Holiday Travel

AAA is projecting 87.7 million Americans will be traveling 50 miles or more away from home during the year-end holidays. This is a 3.8 percent increase from the 84.5 million Americans who traveled during the same Christmas/New Year period one year ago, and is the largest projected increase for any major holiday this year. The number of travelers by automobile is expected to be 77.7 million in 2009 compared to 74.4 million last year; an increase of 4.4 percent. The number of travelers by air is expected be 4.2 million compared to 4.1 million in 2008; an increase of 2.9 percent. The number of those traveling by "other" means, including, trains, watercraft, buses and multiple-modes of transportation, is expected to be 5.8 million compared to 6.0 million last year, AAA said. Last year, the total number of travelers during the year-end holidays was 84.5 million; a decline of 4.7 percent from 2007.

"More Americans traveling during the winter holidays is another sign consumers' are continuing to grow more confident in their personal financial situations," said AAA's director of Travel Services, Glen MacDonell. "The moderate projected rise in the number of air travelers this holiday period is especially welcome since the airline industry was hit especially hard by the recession."

AAA's projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight. The Lexington, Mass.-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA earlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. For purposes of this forecast the year-end holidays travel period is defined as trips that include travel of 50 miles or more away from home during the period from Wednesday, Dec. 23 to Sunday, Jan. 3. The complete AAA/IHS Global Insight 2009 year-end holidays forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.

Eighty-eight percent of year-end vacationers are expected to travel by automobile, while five percent are projected to go by air. In November, the time when most people make decisions in regards to year-end travel, average gasoline prices were over $.50 more expensive per gallon than they were in November 2008. Despite these higher prices, AAA believes the impact of higher fuel costs on year-end travel will be minimal. This is because the average cost of self-serve regular gasoline remains well-below $3 per gallon, and because prices have been fairly stable since mid-October; staying between $2.60 and $2.70 per gallon on a nationwide average basis.

Americans are expected to spend approximately $1,009 per household on travel during the Christmas/New Year period. The largest average share of all spending will be on transportation and transportation-related charges. Approximately 11.6 percent of spending will go toward lodging. Dining will account for 17.6 percent of total holiday spend, while shopping will account for 17.6 percent. Entertainment and recreation expenses will account for 13.1 percent of the average travel budget. Christmas/New Year travelers will average of 791 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. An estimated forty percent of travelers will journey more than 700 miles round trip. One-quarter (25 percent) of travelers will log between 251 and 700 miles. More than one-third (35 percent) of travelers will travel 250 miles or less round trip.

According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index -- a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the U.S. for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing -- the lowest average published airfares over the year-end holidays period are expected to increase two percent from last year to an average of $179 per roundtrip ticket. Car rental rates also will increase; up two percent to an average of $50 per day for a mid-size car versus $49 per day last year. Rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to be 10 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $119 per night. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond lodgings will pay 6 percent less than last year; an average of $86 per night. These are the lowest average lodging rates for this time period since 2004.

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Global Insight has developed a unique approach to forecasting actual travel that explicitly considers current economic conditions, past holiday travel trends and behavior, and the recent assessment of pre-holiday American travel intentions derived from a survey of 1,350 American households.*

The intentions figures act as a leading indicator, but do not constitute the forecast itself. Instead, travel intentions overlay other key travel drivers along with past trends in an effort to project what Americans will actually do. The approach recognizes Americans do not always behave as they say they will.

Global Hotel Transaction Volume Forecast to Increase up to 40%

After dropping to the lowest level in the decade, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels forecasts that global hotel transaction volume will increase by 20 to 40 percent in 2010, according to initial results from the firm's Hotel Investment Outlook 2010 report. The expected increase marks the first rise in two years. In 2009, as investor confidence remained weak, a forecasted $9 billion worth of hotels changed ownership, down 64 percent from the $24.8 billion which traded in 2008. As a number of hotel markets reach their bottom, worldwide transaction levels are forecast to increase to $11 to 13 billion in 2010.

"Across the world, the trading of single hotel assets, mostly valued at up to $100 million, will initiate the recovery. Entrepreneurial transactions that can be financed regionally or locally will be the first to re-enter the market," said Arthur de Haast, global CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels. "Equity-rich opportunistic buyers will also look at select larger single-asset transactions in global gateway markets, but our 2010 volume forecast assumes there will be few substantial portfolio transactions in the new year." Following an abundance of intra-regional and global capital flows at the height of the market, which accounted for 58 percent of investments in 2007, cross-border activity declined to 48 percent of transaction volume in 2008. To date in 2009, cross-border activity narrowed further to just 38 percent of total capital invested globally. The investment landscape in 2010 will remain localized, characterized by subdued cross-border activity as investors remain risk averse and often favor their home markets. The exception to this trend will be some Asian conglomerates and Middle Eastern investors who will likely scour the global landscape for favorable investment opportunities.

"Asian conglomerates are poised to emerge as one of the primary global acquisition groups in 2010 as they seek prime assets in gateway markets, especially in the United States and U.K., playing to currency fluctuations. Furthermore, sovereign wealth funds, primarily from the Middle East but also Asia will aim to place capital in hotels as a hedge against inflation, and will therefore become more active buyers again," said de Haast.

"The lack of availability of traditional lending has spurred the creation of new investment vehicles to acquire hotel loans and assets, and we expect a continuation of this in 2010. The increase in public market activity in terms of IPOs, rights issues, and mortgage and equity REITs will also drive acquisitions," said de Haast. While this new capital will drive an interest in acquisitions, the level will be nominal in comparison to the level of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) debt at the market's peak.

Though global hotel markets continue to experience significant stress, foreclosure activity dotted the news headlines only selectively throughout 2009. Banks and lenders have surprised markets in crisis with their workout approach, which has been more focussed on extending loans and trying to recapitalize debt rather than take foreclosure action.

"As more assets are placed under the control of banks, we expect more of the upcoming sales activity to be driven by banks, which will provide a lift to hotel transaction volumes. Particularly in the U.S. and Europe, banks are reviewing their loan portfolios and determining their next steps. But the number of distressed assets on the market will not come in form of a tidal wave," said de Haast.

All eyes will be on hotel operating fundamentals in 2010 as the market bottoms, flattens, or starts to show growth, depending on its location. While recovery will vary widely across the globe, investors will be watching for three or more months of consecutive year-over-year room yield growth as a sign of stabilization needed to underpin valuations and boost confidence. Following the harrowing year of frozen liquidity, stalled transactions and drastic drops in hotel performance and values in many hotel markets globally, 2010 will signal a year of improvement and a fresh pace for opportunistic, cashed-up buyers.

"Savvy buyers who are in a strong cash position and can be aggressive will be able to benefit from the buying opportunities that emerge. Overall, bids will continue to be conservative in 2010, but the early movers stand to capture the most value," said de Haast.

Survey Reveals Leisure Travelers Intentions for 2010

Travel Ticker, a travel website and newsletter, recently announced the results from its 2010 Travel Intentions Survey. The poll reveals the opinions of nearly 5,000 U.S. consumers on their leisure travel intentions in the new year, indicating that as compared to 2009, 35 percent of consumers intend to take more leisure vacations while 51 percent plan on taking the same amount of leisure vacations in 2010. Conversely, only 6 percent of consumers plan on taking less leisure trips in the new year.

18-30 year olds lead the charge on planning more leisure trips in 2010:

• Of the total number of consumers polled, 43 percent of 18-30 year-olds said they plan on taking more leisure trips in 2010, making them the most likely group of respondents who will be increasing their travel plans. 38 percent of these respondents cited their improved economic situation as a reason to travel more, which might be related to a renewed sense of security due to a possible stability in the job market for these individuals.
• This age group is followed by 38 percent of 65+ year-olds and more than 32 percent of 31-65 year-olds, who also plan on taking more leisure trips in the upcoming year.

More free time and inspiring deals cited as top reasons for more leisure trips in the new year:

• When asked the reasons why they would be planning leisure travel in the new year, 32 percent of respondents claimed more free time as their primary reason followed by 25 percent believing there would be better deals to choose from in 2010.
• Of those citing more free time as their reason to up their travel in 2010, more than 38 percent of respondents had an annual household income of $76k+ and 34 percent were 51+. Travel may be top of mind for these age and income brackets as many may be working less hours and able to take additional paid or unpaid leave or plan on retiring in 2010.
• Nearly 30 percent of respondents between the age of 41-50 year olds and those making less than $50k said the deal would inspire them to travel. We believe these price-conscious individuals plan on being more financially stable with the extra income to take their dream trip in 2010, still looking at price points and travel perks as incentives to book.

Only six percent of respondents plan to travel less in 2010

• Of those respondents who said they intend to travel less, 65 percent of them stated their economic situation as the deciding factor to do so. Whereas the remainder citied other reasons, such as less free time, for cut backs in leisure travel.

The survey was conducted from November 16 until December 2 online among Travel Ticker users, with 4,985 completed responses.

OPPORTUNITIES EXECUTIVE MOVERS!

HOTELS & RESORTS: Boyd Gaming Corporation has announced that Bob Boughner has been named Executive Vice President and Chief Business Development Officer, effective immediately. In this newly created position, Boughner will lead the Company's new business development efforts. These responsibilities will include: expansion in both existing and new markets; building corporate relationships and alliances; and pursuing new business opportunities in a variety of areas, including Internet gaming. Boughner will report directly to Keith Smith, Boyd Gaming's President and Chief Executive Officer. He will retain his current duties as President of Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa, will continue to oversee the Company's development efforts on the Las Vegas Strip, and remain on the Company's Board of Directors. His appointment is subject to New Jersey regulatory approval. Boughner joined Boyd Gaming in 1976, and has served in a variety of senior executive positions, including general manager of several properties, Senior Vice President of Administration, Chief Operating Officer, and President of Echelon Resorts. He has served on the Company's Board of Directors since 1996... Choice Hotels International, Inc. has announced that it has named Patti Goodrich vice president of enterprise infrastructure. In this new position, she will oversee the strategic direction and operational management of the company's data center management, service management and support, and infrastructure services engineering teams. Goodrich reports to the company's Chief Technology Officer Todd Davis. Goodrich brings 23 years of experience in leadership and infrastructure management to Choice Hotels, most recently servicing as associate vice president of information technology operations at Scottsdale Insurance Company. In this position, she was responsible for managing the technology infrastructure for the company, including its data center, telecommunications, server operations, system administration, application distribution and service desk. During her tenure at Scottsdale, Goodrich oversaw the development of the company's data center strategy, system recovery roadmap, new office build-outs, Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) process maturity, asset management implementation, and Storage Area Network (SAN) upgrade. She also led the company's on-going migration to enterprise data centers designed to lower risk, increase system availability, and position the company for future growth. Goodrich holds a bachelor's degree in marketing from Miami University and a master's of business administration from Xavier University... David Zamarin has been named Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer at Tropicana Entertainment, LLC responsible for developing the corporate marketing function. From 2002-2008, Zamarin was head of corporate marketing at Penn National Gaming where he successfully implemented marketing, marketing research and brand development strategies for Penn’s 16 casino and racino operations. While at Penn, Zamarin built the company’s first-ever corporate level marketing and marketing research functions. In the role he created marketing performance standards which were measured through comprehensive evaluations of marketing efficiencies and effectiveness. He also developed a series of property satisfaction surveys to help inform and guide the company’s customer acquisition and retention programs. Zamarin, who holds a Ph.D. in Experimental/Social Psychology from the University of Southern California, began his gaming career in 1982 as the Director of Research for Harrah’s Hotels and Casinos in Reno, Nevada. Harrah’s later (1986) elevated him to Vice President of Marketing and Sales at its flagship Las Vegas strip casino. In 1989 he opened Exxact Research + Marketing, a casino marketing consulting firm he operated until 1991 when he returned to the gaming industry at Gold River Gambling Hall in Laughlin and went on to become the Director of Sales and Marketing for Peppermill Hotel and Casino in Reno. From 1993 to 2002, Zamarin honed his marketing skills as the head of marketing in some of the most competitive land-based and riverboat gaming markets in the country including Showboat Mardi Gras Casino in East Chicago, Illinois; the Showboat Hotel Casino in Las Vegas; and Hyatt’s Grand Victoria Casino and Resort in Rising Sun, Indiana. In addition to his doctoral degree, Zamarin earned a Masters in Psychology from California State University in Los Angeles, and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Psychology from UCLA.

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