The Travel Career Connexxions Opportunities Newsletter
10/31/06
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This week in Opportunities:
Forecast: Air, Hotel and Car Rental Rates Set to Rise in 2007
U.S. Outbound Travelers to Reach 61 Million
Opportunities Watch!
Executive Movers! See who's going where?
Travel Executive Employment Report
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OPPORTUNITIES NEWS & TRENDS
Forecast: Air, Hotel and Car Rental Rates Set to Rise in 2007
Continuing demand for corporate travel without a commensurate lift in supply will push costs higher across the board in 2007, according to the American Express Global Business Travel Forecast. Air fares worldwide are expected to increase – though at a slower pace than in 2006 – while hotels rates will remain at heightened 2006 levels and surge in key business centers.
The American Express Business Travel Forecast prepared by Advisory Services shows a three to five percent increase in global domestic economy airfares, and a three to seven percent rise in global international business-class fares. Moderate airfare increases are expected as airlines pare back fare hikes, corporations focus on smarter buying and traveler security remains an area of concern.
Meanwhile, skyrocketing demand for hotels across all regions will continue to give hoteliers more control over negotiations, with few downward pressures available to stabilize pricing. Rising occupancy, limited supply growth, and competition between leisure and corporate travelers will leave hotels with the confidence to increase transient rates.
Air fares are expected to climb in 2007, though low-cost carrier penetration continues to dampen prices across the global airline industry. In North America, the continued emergence of low-cost carriers, along with weaker demand will be balanced by reduced capacity and industry consolidation.
In Europe, upward pricing pressure continues to take hold in most regions. More passenger traffic and higher oil prices will be offset by continued low-cost carrier growth, increased capacity on high traffic routes and competitive fare structure changes.
Within Asia-Pacific, low-cost carriers have maintained their momentum, consistent with the continuing deregulation in the region. The low-cost carrier trend coincides with an increased level of affluence across Asia-Pacific, improved mobility of the population and increasing demand. At the same time, full service carriers continue to invest in product upgrades to retain the high yielding corporate traveler, while shedding other operating costs. These developments will generally manifest themselves as upward pricing pressure.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, improving economic conditions are expected to spur business travel growth, both domestically and internationally. High oil prices and increased passenger traffic will be somewhat offset by greater capacity and the growth of low-cost carrier competition.
The hotel environment will continue to be challenging for buyers in 2007, with prices similar to those seen last year. Hoteliers are pricing discounts based on higher corporate and rack rates, and focusing on revenue and inventory management techniques, such as dynamic pricing.
In the U.S., hotel rates will continue their upward climb amid higher occupancy rates and limited supply growth. Europe will experience similar hotel rate increases.
In many corporate markets in the Asia-Pacific region, increased demand for hotel rooms will surpass the growing rate of air capacity, leading to higher overall hotel rates. In Hong Kong and cities in Australia, for instance, rates could grow in the double-digits in 2007. In India, demand is also outstripping supply.
Latin America & the Caribbean will likely experience increasing local and international travel, which will drive hotel rates higher, though results are expected to vary by country.
In the U.S., domestic economy fares will rise three to six percent in 2007. More low-cost fares and a tighter focus on corporate policy compliance will be balanced by reduced capacity and continued industry consolidation.
International business-class fares will climb two to four percent as airlines boost non-stop flights to previously under-serviced destinations, though non-stop flights will be priced at somewhat of a premium.
In Canada, fares will rise zero to three percent for domestic routes and four to six percent for international routes.
In the U.S., hotel rates will continue their upward climb amid higher occupancy rates and limited supply growth. Rates in key U.S. cities, such as New York, may rise as much as 18 percent. Boston, Philadelphia and San Francisco rates are expected to climb five to seven percent at mid-range properties and eight to ten percent at upper-range properties.
In the North America car rental market, lower supply and fleet pricing increases should lead to four to six percent increases in 2007.
The Global Business Travel Forecast sees moderate air fare increases of zero to two percent for economy fares and two to three percent for international fares throughout Europe. More passengers and high fuel costs will be partly offset by low-cost carrier growth and increased capacity.
In the U.K., France and Sweden, air fares are expected to rise a moderate one to three percent. In Germany, the impact of low-cost carriers may push air fares down, and domestic fares may fall by one percent in 2007.
Hotel costs will increase amid significant business demand and higher occupancy rates. In the United Kingdom, rates will rise two to six percent; some cities, such as Edinburgh, will record rate increases as high as 11 percent. In London, overall rates will climb two to five percent in mid-range hotels and three to six percent in upper-range hotels. Many London hotels will see already-high occupancy levels climb to as much as 80 to 90 percent in 2007.
In Europe, car rental firms will remain much more competitive than in the U.S. Rates are expected to increase one to three percent on a year-over-year basis.
Europe Air Fares & Hotel Rates
In Latin America, improving economic conditions, more passenger traffic and high oil prices will continue to drive fares higher. However, these increases will be somewhat offset by greater capacity and the growth of low-cost airlines in the market.
Domestic fares in the region will rise one to three percent, while international fares will climb four to seven percent, with Argentina and Brazil’s business-class fares showing the largest price increases.
Domestic fares in Mexico, however, are expected to decrease five to nine percent due to the rapid growth of low-cost carriers.
On the hotel front, rates in most of Latin America’s key business markets are expected to rise significantly, due to more travel to the region. Hotel rates should increase an average of two to four percent in the mid-range tier and two to seven percent in the upper-range tier.
In Argentina, rates are projected to climb four to six percent at mid-range properties and four to seven percent at upper-range properties. Similarly, rates in Mexico should climb two to three percent at mid-range properties and three to five percent at upper-range properties.
Car rental rates are expected to grow one to three percent on a year-over-year basis.
In Asia-Pacific, average air fares will climb three to five percent.
Asia-Pacific also continues to power ahead on the low-cost front, and the region is expected to see its first long-haul, low-cost model by the end of 2006.
India now has six low-cost carriers in the sky, with more to come in 2007, and the country is expected to be the world’s largest low-cost carrier market by 2010.
On the hotel side, American Express Business Travel forecasts a zero to twenty-five percent increase in mid-range hotel rates across the JAPA region.
Leisure travelers will continue to compete directly with business travelers for rooms, leaving hotels with the confidence to increase transient rates. Room inventory in the mature corporate markets of Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore is growing at a slower rate than air capacity, thus impacting supply and driving rates higher.
Rental car rates in Asia-Pacific are expected to grow one to three percent on a year-over-year basis.
Projections were based on a combination of statistical forecasting, research of supplier markets, regional economic trends, interviews with American Express industry analysts, and analysis of reports generated within and outside American Express.
As indicated above, the forecasts and projections provided in this report are based on information gathered from a number of different internal and external sources and no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of the forecasts or projections made herein. In addition, actual changes in business travel costs could vary significantly from forecasted data, particularly as a result of unforeseen future political, economic, and/or environmental events.
All ranges represent forecasted year-over-year increases.
U.S. Outbound Travelers to Reach 61 Million
A new study by Research and Markets has found that the number of outbound travelers in the United States is expected to reach 61 million in 2006.
Though many may consider the outbound travel market a mature one, only 30% of Americans hold valid passports and only 41% have traveled outside the U.S. in the past three years. This indicates that many Americans are not willing to, or do not have the means to, travel outside the U.S.
Despite this, the outbound travel market, both in terms of number of outbound travelers and in spending abroad, grew 7.6% and 21.5% respectively from 2003 to 2005. International travel spending by U.S. residents exceeded year 2000 levels in 2005 when spending reached $95 billion. Spend on international travel by U.S. residents returned to 2000 levels in 2004, having declined each year in between. The number of outbound trips is also forecast to exceed year 2000 levels in 2006 with an estimated 61 million outbound travelers. Again it was not until 2004 when 2000 levels where reached after successive years of decline in the between years.
This rebound in outbound travel comes on the heals of a slump in outbound travel from 2000-2003 with year 2003 levels of spending and person trips being the low point with only 54 million outbound trips and $78 million in spending. Growth has been driven by an improving economy and growing household income levels, in spite of a weak dollar, which makes travel to many destinations more expensive, and on-going terrorist threats.
The study covers travel taken outside of the U.S., with at least one night of paid-for accommodation. The analysis focuses mainly on commercial accommodation for hotels, motels and bed and breakfasts. For the entire report, visit: www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c44181.
OPPORTUNITIES WATCH!
Crestline Chosen to Manage Two New Hotels in MD.
Crestline Hotels & Resorts, Inc. has announced its appointment by Aberdeen Hotels-Baseball
Park LLC as the management company for two new hotels under construction in
Aberdeen, MD. The 120 guestroom Courtyard by Marriott and the 78 guestroom
Residence Inn are co-joined hotels that enable guests to choose either of
the two Marriott brands in one convenient location. The properties will
share several amenities and services such as parking facilities, meeting
space and a fitness center. The hotels are scheduled to open in early
January of 2007. The Courtyard by Marriott and Residence Inn are adjacent to the City's
Cal Ripken Minor League Stadium, and the exterior of the hotel building is
designed as a replica of the old warehouse building at Camden Yards which
was adjacent to the Orioles stadium in Baltimore.
OPPORTUNITIES EXECUTIVE MOVERS!
AGENCIES: eTravco, Inc., a multi-channel travel marketing and distribution network, added a second senior executive to its team in the last 60 days with the appointment of travel and hospitality industry veteran Graham Richards to the position of VP of Sales and Marketing.
In his new role, Richards will assume overall responsibility for sales and marketing operations. During his 15-years at Pegasus Solutions, a global provider of hotel reservations services and technology, Richards served as VP of Global Sales and had overall responsibility for the company’s Utell operations in the Americas. He started as the International Marketing Manager for Europe. After leaving Pegasus in 2003, Richards joined Cendant Travel Distribution Services as Vice President of Strategic Accounts and General Manager Latin America. Most recently, he worked as an industry consultant.
CRUISELINES: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. has announced that Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Luis Leon will retire
from the company, and that Executive Vice President Brian Rice will succeed
him as CFO. Leon has been the company CFO since 2003, when he joined the company.
He will assist in the transition, which is expected to be completed before
the end of 2006. Incoming CFO, Brian Rice, has an extensive background in financial
operations and revenue-performance management. He is widely recognized as a
leader in revenue management, having overseen the conceptual development
and implementation of the company's highly regarded revenue-management
systems and procedures. He also designed many of the company's
financial-management models, and led numerous operational and financial
initiatives. Rice will be the fourth CFO in Royal Caribbean's 35-year
history.
HOTELS & RESORTS: Crestline Hotels
& Resorts, Inc. has announced the appointment of Mary Pat Koscher as
Director of Sales for the new Courtyard by Marriott and the Residence Inn
hotels. The two hotels are under construction in Aberdeen, MD and are
scheduled to open in mid January 2007. Koscher joins Crestline from the Wingate Inn in Aberdeen, MD, where
she was Director of Sales. She brings more than 20 years of hospitality
industry management experience having also served as the Senior Sales
Manager for the Sheraton Baltimore North Hotel and the Sheraton Meadowlands
Hotel, as well as Assistant Restaurant Manager for the Sheraton Boston
Hotels & Towers. Koscher holds a Bachelors Degree in Hospitality Management from
Niagara University and an Associates Degree from Erie Community College in
Orchard Park, NY. She is active in the hospitality community as well as a
committee member for the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. She is also a State
Commissioner for the Maryland Commission for Women appointed by Governor
Robert Ehrlich, Jr...
Scott L. Bender has recently
been promoted to the Chief Executive Officer position at Seven Springs
Mountain Resort. Bender has been with the resort since 1983, and most
recently acted as the President, Chief Operations Officer and Chairman of
the Board. The change comes with the sale of the family-owned corporation
from the Dupre Family to the Nutting Family of Wheeling, WV. Bender was
instrumental in the transition of resort ownership. Bender was hired in 1983 to establish an in-house Public Relations
department at Seven Springs. He quickly became involved in resort marketing
and assumed the role of Director of Advertising, Marketing & Public
Relations in 1987. Bender positioned the resort as a year round resort
offering family recreation and a company with key interest in the region
and local community. He developed public relations campaigns and worked
with an agency to create and facilitate the resort's marketing and
advertising efforts. Bender was named Marketing Director in 1989. Under
Bender's guidance the resort management team allowed Seven Springs to
evolve in a highly-competitive winter industry, and grow as a spring,
summer and fall resort. Much of this was accomplished by creating events
and developing new activities and services to attract overnight guests.
In 1993, Bender was named Vice President of Operations, under the
leadership of former resort President James McClure. In this role Bender
introduced the discounted season ski pass program which took the number of
Seven Springs pass holders from 3,000 to more than 11,000. Bender also
worked to enhance the resort's services by constructing a $5 million skier
services building and installing the region's first high-speed six
passenger chair lift. Groundwork for future development was also laid as
plans for Pheasant Run and Southwind at Lake Tahoe, the latest real estate
projects at Seven Springs, were developed. Bender was promoted to Chief
Operating Officer in 1999 and President and COO in 2001. Chairman of the
Board was added to his role in 2003...
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. has announced that Mike Goodson will join the Company as
Managing Director of the Company's European operations, effective November
1, 2006. He will be based in London. Goodson has spent the past 18-plus years with InterContinental
Hotels Group and its predecessor organizations in a variety of roles,
including Vice President of Tax, CFO of both the Americas and Asia-Pacific
regions and, most recently, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. In
his most recent role, Goodson was based in London and oversaw IHG's
over $5 billion real estate disposition program...
TRAVEL TECH: Paul M. McManus, president and chief
executive officer of The Leading Hotels of the World, Ltd., and Richard
Wiegmann, chief operating officer of TRUST.WIZCOM. by Travelport, have
announced the appointment of Jimmy Suh as managing director of The Private
Label Company, LLC (PLC).
The PLC is a recently established partnership with CRS and Voice
Service Provider TRUST.WIZCOM., designed to give a global presence to a
hotel group or chain in the luxury marketplace by leveraging the existing
infrastructure and reservations volumes of The Leading Hotels of the World,
Ltd. Suh, who will be based in the New York City headquarters of The
Leading Hotels of the World, Ltd. has most recently served as vice
president of revenue and product development for Club Quarters, a private
membership hotel company. He previously was vice president - revenue
management and distribution for Kimpton Hotels and Restaurant Group, Inc.
Mr. Suh also has held posts with the Hilton Hotel & Towers in San
Francisco, and the ANA Hotel in Washington, DC. A graduate of the University of Maryland with a degree in finance,
Suh is a past president of HEDNA and a member of the board of directors
from 2004 to 2006. He is a frequent speaker at industry conferences.
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